Africa Rising… a new Africa… the opportunities of Africa. These are the phrases thrown around by Western media to describe the situation on the ground in Sub-Saharan Africa. Africa is being pushed as a land of opportunity and growth. The continent is no longer the basket-case of the world. If this is the case, why are so many of the refugees in Europe from sub-Saharan nations? Once more, reality, does not conform to the narrative.
In mid-2015, the United Nations Refugee Agency was reporting that of the migrants arriving by sea, 12% were from Eritrea, 5% from Somalia and 5% from Nigeria. UN statistics from 2014 shows that out of the top ten source nations, six are African nations. Anecdotal stories and news clip evidence shows a far darker complexion for immigrants than the average Syrian. The migrant crisis is not a war-weary population seeking safety, but economic opportunists.
The worry should be that Africa’s governments have surfed a commodity supercycle with little development of technical, manufacturing, and research industries. The cracks are starting to show, and in far more dangerous locations than Middle Eastern nations with limited populations. Nigeria is a powder keg, which for years has seen horrendous fighting and friction between its Muslim North and Christian South.
Nigeria is an oil rich nation, though, and a booming, possibly rising power for the 21st century. This is the pitch, anyway. On the ground is another story of a nation that already went through a civil war and openly discusses if another is coming. Boko Haram is a symptom of their problems. Boko Haram could not be effectively fought until Nigeria quietly hired old, white South African mercenaries. Despite all protestations and eloquent editorials from their suited up natives in Western outlets, Nigeria faces major problems that will only get worse.
Famous investor Jim Chanos called Nigeria a borderline failed state at the Sohn Conference. Chanos put his dollars to work and is short Nigerian firms. Chanos was explicit in his talk that Africa’s growth was due to the commodity bull and Chinese investment. There is nothing domestic or organic to their economic growth. Nigeria’s problem is one shared across Africa, as they have enjoyed the commodity boom and being a continent-sized natural resource hub for China’s growth. The bull is over, China’s growth is down, and even if slightly down, the Chinese only need to build the world’s biggest copper mine once. None of these nations are prepared for the bust, but Nigeria may be the worst.
Even The New York Times has caught on that all is not well, but it will dance around causes:
For months, many Nigerians have endured painfully long lines for gasoline and power failures that last for days—with no fuel for backup generators. Scant power means water cuts for homes that rely on electricity to pump it. Everyday items are missing from stores, and those that remain cost more than usual.
In this country of rampant inequality, the poor have long been desperate, and the rich are still able to buy their way out of problems. But the situation in Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, is having an outsize impact on the expanding middle class, which has become accustomed to air-conditioning, owning a car and going out for Domino’s pizza. Now, even a bottle of Perrier is too expensive for many.
President Muhammadu Buhari is urging patience, noting that when he took office last year he inherited a corruption-plagued mess.
Delicately handled is how Nigeria might produce plenty of oil but not develop the human capital (or simply does not have the human capital) to have a functioning domestic refinery sector. Without such high skilled manufacturing and technical sectors, Nigeria is simply another Third World country subject to the booms and busts of commodity cycles.
This is not too different from Venezuela. The factors that make Nigeria worse are the Christian-Muslim split and history of civil war and conflict, pure population numbers, and government corruption and incompetence. Venezuela did have a corrupt regime, but what compares to post-colonialism Sub-Saharan Africa? Nigeria cannot even protect its cash cow oil sector. Pirates cost them $15 billion per month. Bandits that post to Twitter attack oil facilities. Lost oil revenues crush currency reserves, which Chanos says are rapidly dwindling.
Once reserves are gone, how will the Nigerian Central Bank keep the charade going? While not hyperinflation, inflation well over 10% and lost fuel or food subsidies will cause unrest. How does that unrest express itself? Unlike Venezuela, Nigeria has 173 million citizens. If Caracas, Venezuela is the scene of daily struggle, violence and murder, what would develop with the 21 million in the Lagos metropolitan area? How fast does the migrant crisis change from a narrative of war refugees from Western intervention and jihadis to the reality of an outlet valve for African incompetence and poor governance? How does the West react?
There is a solution. The biggest puzzle of the 21st century may not be managing America’s decline, slowing Africa’s fertility rates, or China’s rise, but simply the decision to let countries stand or fall on their own. If they seek help, then the return of colonial governance that worked should be a debated solution.
Jamaica has seen a rise in the murder rate from 3.9 per 100,000 to 58. A majority of Jamaicans support a return to colony status. Many have learned that they are miserable because they are politically free. If murder, chaos, and rape are enough to seek refuge in Western nations, the proper solution is to fix the problems at the source. Order, uncomfortable means, and strict measures, will be the only way to solve the problem of Third World incompetence and save global civilization in the process.