In the most recent election on November 4^th, an interesting divergence continued along racial lines. Aside from the irony that we were supposed to be converging on post-racial utopia, this represents a momentous shift in the way democratic politics will be played by the competing parties. Up to this point in time, the Democrats and Republicans had been “competitive cooperators”; that is, while they did openly compete with each other, they ostensibly followed certain agreed upon rules as to how they would compete. One might make a comparison to baseball: in order for a game of baseball to occur, the opposing teams, though competing on one level, are still cooperating on the level of adhering to the rules of the game.

Is this evidence of the Republicans pursuing the so-called Sailer Strategy? Perhaps. Even if such a strategy isn’t pursued consciously, it is likely such a strategy will be pursued accidentally, as Republican politicians are increasingly selected for their appealing strictly and only to the interests of whites, abandoning any attempt to persuade Hispanics and blacks to vote Republican. In the event of such a racial divergence, politics in the United States shall increasingly be open warfare between whites and minorities.

Why had there even been any level of cooperation previously between the ruling democratic parties? In the event of an environment where positive-sum games through cooperation are possible, this selects for dove strategies. However, if that environment is no longer positive-sum, then hawk strategies, which are costly in that they require using up resources to fight and potentially lose to another over some scrap of meat, prevail. It can be argued that the Democrat party turned hawk decades ago, considering their support for immigration and the resultant advantage they have gained by bringing in voters by the millions who skew decidedly Democrat. It has only taken the Republican party quite a few elections to figure out this was going on, but now that this knowledge is increasingly common, the punishment for pursuing a Sailer Strategy is negligible given continual cooperation in the sense of not pursuing such a hawk strategy would have resulted in loss anyway.

The platforms of the competing parties shall increasingly be decided by whether the given policy is beneficial to their primary constituents. Does this policy apparently benefit whites? Then the Republican party will support it. Does this policy apparently benefit minorities? Then the Democrat party will support it. Meritocratic policies favor whites, and so meritocracy will be the official line of the Republicans; affirmative action and other positive discrimination in favor of minorities will favor minorities and disadvantage whites, and so affirmative action will be the official line of the Democrats.

Another element of this ongoing racial bifurcation is the Asian vote. Whereas in 2012 Asians skewed very Democrat, in the 2014 midterm election they closed the gap, only barely favoring Democrats 52-48. The reasoning cannot be very difficult. Just as meritocratic policies favor whites, they also favor Asians to an admittedly higher degree. The Asian minority is the only minority in America that experiences negative discrimination, such as in college admissions where Asians on average need the highest SAT score to gain admission. Whether Asians shall be increasingly folded into the Republican party, forming a white-Asian coalition opposing the minority Democrat coalition, or if they will form a swing vote, remains to be seen.

This increasing racialization of democracy will not make the government more effective at governance. Undoubtedly yearly Congressional tantrums and gridlock shall remain the norm. The gaps for corporate, academic, and media interests to continue influencing legislation will continue widening [and everything Gruber says here is absolutely true]. Ill-advised ventures in the Middle East and Northern Africa might cease only for the lack of competency to even gather the ability to do something that requires so much coordination. The Presidency and the American electorate shall be increasingly and roundly mocked by the Chinese and Russians, and they will be right. The federal government will limp along for many miserable, hopefully merely tepid rather than interesting, decades, but its apparent hegemony is being rapidly displaced.

Meanwhile, cultural war as proxy for tribal conflict will erupt. Violence has been deferred for a while, but there is reason to be pessimistic. We should be careful to delineate between a doomsday scenario of utter collapse and what is being postulated here. Overall violence, riots, racial tensions, and so on will increase, but being able to point to any particular event and saying “This is due to decline” will be difficult if not impossible, in much the same way that blaming a particular tornado on climate change is impossible. The lower classes will be abandoned first, which are particularly poor whites in historically white towns subject to recent waves of immigration and exportation by the cities of their “undesirables.” When society begins breaking down, there is always a mad scramble to make sure that the negative consequences of breakdown do not fall on oneself, regardless of whatever else one might say or what class he belongs to. The lower classes, being less advantaged, will thus inevitably be the first exposed to the negative consequences of society’s deterioration, and it is pointless wringing your hands or pretending it could be any other way. These groups will be the first victims of a democracy-assisted civil war on race-based lines.

The dove strategy is more stable. This is why it is generally preferred. The hawk strategy, when employed against another employing the hawk strategy, entails strife with a loss of resources. As the resources in this case commanded by the Republican and Democrat parties are ultimately social in nature, attacking and marginalizing each other’s primary voter base will be one of the weapons wielded in this slow motion civil war. It is for this reason white men have been continually marginalized and minorities shielded from any potential criticism; but once Republicans no longer fear being called racist, and are willing to accept dumping the negative consequences of social decline on minorities instead of their own, a complete breakdown of government might not be far off.