The acknowledged exception to the policy of passivism is the case of genocide. If the Left decides it has the power to outright purge all factions opposed to its will, the arguments that Moldbug makes are no longer relevant. This exception to the rule, however, is merely a technical exception. The online reaction to the latest leftist attempt to disarm and ultimately liquidate Middle America is ultimately the wrong answer. For the foreseeable future, passivism is still the correct response to continued leftist aggression. This essay will explain why.

First, the National Rifle Association and gun lobbies are not fringe political organizations which operate based on support from the Outer Right. NRA members are normies, its base of support are within the managerial economic structure, and it will not rise or fall based on the support of fringe web memes. While it is a valid point that retaining the right to bear arms will deter widespread leftist aggression, the actions of Outer Right activists will only serve to bring attention on the Outer Right, without substantially increasing the chances that the NRA and gun lobby will succeed in protecting gun rights.

The gun lobby is not a right-wing organization, nor is the NRA. The best move is to allow this intra-establishment squabble to take its natural course. There is plenty of evidence that the managerial elite’s interest in profits supersede their interest in ideological purity. The elite operate by converging corporate power into their network. It is one thing to skim profits off the top to pay off leftist agitators and goons. It is entirely another thing to kill the profit-making institution itself which funds the managerial system. Examine the outcome of the 2008 crash as an example of how the elite operate. The leftist noise machine was calling for the liquidation of major Wall Street corporations whose profits fill the coffers, not just of elite politicians, but of the entire network of CEOs-bureaucrats-media moguls-lobbyists who make up the managerial elite structure. Unless one believes the slice of academic Left that thinks Barack Obama was a right-wing Manchurian candidate, it is obvious that the real power players on the Left have no real problem with corporatism and neoliberal global capitalism. Power in the managerial economy is defined by access to corporate and government budgets. Will the elites really surrender the profits of the arms industry to pacify some ranting leftist foot soldiers who have gone off target? Elite psychology says no; one never sacrifices power for anything other than more power.

Take, then, the nightmare scenario. Power is a relative measurement, not an absolute measurement. The elite determine that the relative power gain from disarming the population outweighs the absolute gain from the arms industry. Disarmament may cost power in absolute terms, but next to a disarmed population the power which comes from control over law enforcement becomes comparatively much greater. It also permits a further extension of the elite’s power: the ability to liquidate populations which are troublesome for their ultimate goals. Keep in mind that civilian and law enforcement casualties are not the unintended side effect of door-to-door disarmament. It is the primary intended consequences. By sending local law enforcement officers to get in gunfights with Middle Americans, the elite manage to kill two birds with one stone. Local law enforcement is disproportionately drawn from the same Middle American demographics that the elite and their minions desire liquidated.

“Aha,” one might say, “Art, you have argued yourself into a circle. The Nightmare Scenario is plausible, even if not guaranteed, and fits the criteria of a genocide. You acknowledge that the ultimate goal of the Left and their managerial elite masters is to see me and my family dead in a ditch. You’ve described a way that the current situation could reasonably take that turn.  Passivism is out for the issue of gun control! Time to pack my bug-out bag, buy another ten thousand cartridges, two more black rifles, and shit-post until the pigs show up at my door!”

This is why the essay began with the claim that Moldbug is only technically correct in this situation. Imagine for a moment that the Nightmare Scenario is going down. The elite manage to push through disarmament and hire political commissariats and immigrant goons to shore up sulky red state local law enforcement. This is where the cultural conservatives start quoting Solzhenitsyn and posting pictures of AR-15s on Twitter. The conservatives might be stupid, but the Left is not. The first targets are not going to be grandmothers with their dead husbands’ service revolvers, New Orleans notwithstanding. The first targets will be individuals who the media can gladly spin as criminals and terrorists. The conservative who clucks at Trump for criticizing CNN forgets that the vast majority of American media is owned by six corporations, and corporate power is one of the pillars of the managerial elite. The first disarmaments will probably not galvanize the country. The media will happily comply with the narrative of “white supremacists” and “ultra-right-wing terrorists” shooting at federal officers.

Let us examine the case of an early target for disarmament. The regime sends a SWAT team to serve a no-knock warrant on some poor fellow whose crime was donating money to the NRA and shitposting on Twitter. They use their illegal copy of all FFL background checks to determine that he has a good-sized collection of scary black rifles. Everyone knows that Eric Holder was keeping these records despite the law, so it is wise to assume that they have them.  What are the possible outcomes?

1. The police catch the fellow asleep. His guns are locked in a gun safe, and he has no bug-out bag. The local law enforcement spread his scary black rifles out on a table and invite the local news crew to take pictures while talking about the department’s tireless efforts to keep “military-style weapons” off the streets. He sits out the “2nd Amendment Revolution” from a jail cell.
2. The police are met with gunfire. Nobody is killed except for the homeowner. The media plays a story about suicide-by-cop. Even worse, the police kill the man’s wife and/or children with stray gunfire. The media concocts a story about hostages and murder-suicide while the police cover up the real cause of death.
3. The police are met with gunfire. Numerous casualties but they kill the homeowner in the end. The story is harder to contain, as neighbors probably upload social media video. Nevertheless, the leftist talking heads piously parade their pseudo-respect for the fallen officers while demanding more money for the fight against racism, white supremacy, and right-wing terrorism.
4. The police are met with gunfire and are defeated. Our brave suburban hero gathers up his family like a 21st century John McClane, snags the bug-out bag, and races for the SUV. He pulls up at the gas station to find his credit card is declined. He swings by the ATM to find his accounts frozen. That’s alright, as every bug-out bag should be loaded with cash. His face is on the TV at every truck stop with the red letters “Cop-Killer” beneath them. His daughter starts to cry because she’s hungry and scared. There’s only ten gallons of gas left in the trunk and blue lights everywhere he sees.

Now, in situation 1-3, the homeowners’ preparation has led to nothing.  He wasted his time because he is either dead or in prison. His family is, at best, without a father, and at worst are dead with him, just as the leftists desired. The benefits of activism over passivism in these cases are nil. What has the homeowner obtained by his preparation? Is it really possible to live on the run with a family in tow for any significant amount of time? Even assuming that the American Militia will come riding to the rescue like the cavalry in an old Western film, how long would it take for the people to rise up and throw out the gun-grabbing tyrants? How many weeks can he reasonably hide from the forces of the state when his face is plastered on every television while he waits for his revolutionary comrades for rescue? Remember, the Left is not stupid and will not begin by seizing guns en masse. They will start by making examples, and that example is our brave homeowner. Even the most sympathetic Red State sheriff is going to think twice about looking the other way for a cop killer. How long until a motel clerk recognizes him, or a fast-food server, or a convenience store clerk calls the police? More importantly, is our homeowner really willing to put his family in that kind danger?

The point of this exercise is to demonstrate that no amount of preparation or activism is possible in the case that a person is chosen as an early target of the Left’s police action. The moment that our homeowner’s name popped up on a search or arrest warrant, his life was over, regardless of previous preparations. Let this be reiterated: if the Left chooses a person out to disarm them, their fate was sealed the moment the judge signed the warrant. It is merely a matter of which way the victim chooses to die.

Yes, perhaps the conservative fantasy of a revolution will appear, and middle-class suburban Americans of all races, creeds, and colors will rise up to overthrow the leftists and restore the utopia of original intent, states’ rights, and free market capitalism. None of that helps our dear homeowner. If he is very, very lucky, he got the fourth outcome and managed to hide successfully in the woods until the revolution. If he is very, very unlucky, he gets forgotten in the prison like Edmond Dantes, as the new regime assumes he is just another violent felon. Nevertheless, there is no positive outcome from being an early victim of leftist violence. The only reasonable solution, then, is to avoid being such a victim in the first place.

This is why passivism is still the correct answer in the face of leftist gun-grabbing. By remaining under the radar, one is less likely to be targeted by the initial police raids. The Left is not stupid, but they are predictable and like most narcissistic sociopaths, they are particularly vindictive.  They will target the people who stand out in vocal opposition to their platitudes, not the people who actually threaten their power. History tells us that Red Terrors eventually recede before White Terrors, as the Reds become victims of the better organized and disciplined Whites. The ravages of the 1789 revolutionaries ended when Napoleon turned his cannons on the Paris mobs. Louis-Napoleon marched the National Guard in to silence the lunatics of the 1848 revolution. The kicker is that Restorative movements take years, and few Americans have the ability to live off the grid and invisible to law enforcement for the years required for a successful Situation 4 outcome. The goal of a smart rightist would be to wind up on the side of the Restoration, not a martyr for the dead Constitution. NRA activism, purchasing numerous firearms, planning for a shootout with the police are the tactics of a loser, perhaps the ultimate example of Samuel Francis’s beautiful loser.  Martyrs always look beautiful in death. The smart rightist isn’t looking to die, however, but to live under a Restored regime.

Collective action is an exercise of real power in the modern world. Individual action is the mark of a loser, a fool, or a romantic. Traditional guns rights activism, prepping, or gun collecting will not actually do anything to enhance a person’s survival. The winning bet is not to outshoot the police, but to outlast the Left’s bloody-minded hate. By not making oneself a target, one ensures a better chance at surviving a Red Terror, and the best way to avoid becoming a target is to practice passivism. This is not to say that gun purchases are bad. Certainly, guns are useful for hunting and personal defense against criminals. An individual gun, however, is only a useful defense against an individual assailant, not an effective defense against the collective forces of leftist gun-grabbers. The only defense against collective leftist violence is a critical mass of Red State elites who understand the threat that Red violence poses to their authority, and are armed with realistic plans for Restoration. Our homeowner is not going to stop the gun-grabbing. Sheriffs, mayors, National Guard officers, and maybe even governors who don’t want to see their homes become charnel houses will stop the gun-grabbers, in time. It is a better, and more effective, use of one’s time preparing to support your local elites than decorating a suburban middle-class coffin with NRA posters and enough guns to arm an infantry company.